Human Growth and Development Research Paper Essay Example for Free

Human Growth and Development Research Paper Essay Abstract The following research paper will be written on schizophrenia. I will discuss what schizophrenia is. I will discuss the history behind this chronic disease. Also, who is affected by it? In addition, how common it is in some people. And, I will talk about the different types. Furthermore, I will discuss the causes of schizophrenia. If schizophrenia is hereditary? And the different types of symptoms. Also, how it is diagnosed. Lastly, I will talk over the treatment for people with schizophrenia. What is Schizophrenia? Schizophrenia is a chronic and severe mental illness. It is considered one of the psychotic mental disorders and is described by symptoms of thought, behavior, and social problems. The thought problems associated with schizophrenia are described as psychosis, in that the persons thinking is completely out of touch with reality at times. An example of this would be, the sufferer of this disease may hear voices or see people that are not actually present or feel like bugs are crawling on their skin when there are none. The individual with this disorder may also have disorganized speech, behavior, physically rigid, significantly decreased feelings, and delusions, which are ideas about themselves or others that have no basis in reality (for example, the individual might experience paranoia, in that he or she thinks others are plotting against them when they are not). What is the history of schizophrenia? The term schizophrenia has only been in use since 1911. The word schizophrenia is less than 100 years old. Soon before that, it was deemed a separate mental illness in 1887 by Emil Kraepelin. Despite the fact that it is a more recent known disease, it has been described throughout written history. Ancient Egyptian, Hindu, Chinese, Greek, and Roman writings described symptoms similar to the symptoms of schizophrenia. During medieval times, schizophrenia, like other illnesses, was often viewed as evidence of the sufferer being possessed by spirits or evil powers. The film â€Å"A Beautiful Mind† depicts the life of a man named John Nash, a noted scientist, and his struggles with paranoid schizophrenia. In history, all people who were considered abnormal, whether due to mental illness, mental retardation, or physical deformities, were treated the same. Early theories  invented that mental disorders were caused by â€Å"evil possession† of the body, and the appropriate treatment was then get rid of these demons, through various means, reaching from innocuous treatments, such as exposing the patient to certain types of music, to dangerous and sometimes deadly means, such as releasing the evil spirits by drilling holes in the patients skull. 1996-2014 MedicineNet. 1996-2009. Schizophrenia.com. Who is affected, and who is it most common in? Schizophrenia affects about 1% of the population, corresponding to more than 2 million people in the United States and 100,000-200,000 newly diagnosed people every year. Other statistics about schizophrenia include that it affects men about one and a half times more commonly than women and that 50% of people in hospital psychiatric care have schizophrenia. Diagnosis is usually in people aged 17-35 years with the illness appearing earlier in men (in the late teens or early 20s) than in women (who are affected in the 20s to early 30s). Although there have been fewer studies on schizophrenia in children compared to adults, researchers are finding that children as young as 6 years old can be found to have all the symptoms of their adult counterparts and continue to have those symptoms into adulthood. 1996-2014 MedicineNet. What are the different types of Schizophrenia? There are five different types of schizophrenia, each based on the kind of symptoms the person has at the time of assessment. Firstly, there is paranoid schizophrenia. In this type the individual is preoccupied with one or more delusions or many auditory hallucinations but does not have symptoms of disorganized schizophrenia. On the other hand, disorganized schizophrenia is when the prominent symptoms are disorganized speech and behavior, as well as flat or inappropriate affect. The person does not have enough symptoms to be characterized as suffering from catatonic schizophrenia. On that note, catatonic schizophrenia is when the person with this type of schizophrenia primarily has at least two of the following symptoms: difficulty moving, resistance to moving, excessive movement, abnormal movements, and/or repeating what others say or do. Also, there is undifferentiated schizophrenia: This is characterized by episodes of two or more of the resulting symptoms: delusions, hallucinations, disorganized speech or behavior, catatonic behavior, but the individual does not qualify for a diagnosis of paranoid, disorganized, or catatonic type of schizophrenia. Lastly, there is residual schizophrenia: While the full-blown  characteristic positive symptoms of schizophrenia (those that involve an excess of normal behavior, such as delusions, paranoia, or heightened sensitivity) are absent, the sufferer has a less severe form of the disorder or has only negative symptoms (symptoms characterized by a decrease in function, such as withdrawal, disinterest, and not speaking). Overall, those are all the different types of schizophrenia, there descriptions, and symptoms. 1996-2014 MedicineNet. What Are Causes of Schizophrenia? There are many causes to schizophrenia. Rather, it is the result of a complex group of genetic, psychological, and environmental factors. Genetically, schizophrenia is very similar to bipolar disorder, in the two disorders they both share a number of the same risk genes. However, the fact is that both illnesses also have some genetic factors that are unique. Environmentally, the risks of developing schizophrenia can even occur before birth. For example, the risk of schizophrenia is increased in individuals whose mother had one of certain infections during pregnancy. Difficult life circumstances during childhood, like the early loss of a parent, parental poverty, bullying, witnessing parental violence; emotional, sexual, or physical abuse; physical or emotional neglect; and insecure attachment have been associated with the development of this illness. The environment and the beings around the child as its young can decide whether or not the person suffers of that disease. 1996-2014 MedicineNet. Is Schizophrenia Hereditary? One of the most frequently asked question about schizophrenia is if it is hereditary. Like most of the other mental disorders, schizophrenia is not directly passed from one generation to another genetically, but it is known to run in families. Consequently, the risk of illness in an identical twin of a person with schizophrenia is 40%-50% and a child of a parent suffering from schizophrenia has a 10% chance of developing the illness. So, yes schizophrenia is somewhat hereditary. 1996-2014 MedicineNet. What are some signs or symptoms of schizophrenia? When it comes to symptoms there are two different categories. There are positive and negative symptoms. Positive: Beliefs that have no basis in reality (delusions) Hearing, seeing, feeling, smelling, or tasting things that have no basis in reality (hallucinations) Disorganized speech Disorganized behaviors Catatonic behaviors Negative: Inhibition of facial expressions Lack of motivation/ speech 1996-2014  MedicineNet. How is schizophrenia diagnosed? There is no test that definitively indicates that someone has schizophrenia. Therefore, health care officials diagnose this disorder by gathering comprehensive medical, family, and mental-health information. Patients have a tendency to to benefit when the practitioner takes into account their clients entire life and background. This consists of but is not restricted to the persons gender, sexual orientation, cultural, religious and ethnic background, and socioeconomic status. The symptom sufferer might be asked to fill out a self-test that the practitioner will review if the person being appraised is able to complete it. The practitioner will also either perform a physical examination or request that the individuals primary-care doctor perform one. The medical examination will usually include lab tests to evaluate the persons general health and to explore whether or not the individual has a medical condition that might produce psychological symptoms. Also, mental-health professionals are often exploring if the individual suffers from hallucinations or delusions, depression and/or manic symptoms, anxiety, substance abuse, as well as some personality disorders and developmental disorders. As a result, some of the symptoms of schizophrenia can also occur in other mental illnesses, the mental-health screening is to determine if the individual suffers from schizoaffective disorder or other psychotic disorder, depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorder, or a substance-abuse or personality disorder. Any disorder that is associated with bizarre behavior, mood, or thinking, like borderline personality disorder or another psychotic disorder, as well as dissociative identity disorder, also known as multiple personality disorder, which may be particularly challenging to tell between from schizophrenia. In order to judge the persons current emotional state, health-care providers perform a mental-status examination as well. In addition, providing treatment that is appropriate to the diagnosis, determining the presence of mental illnesses that may co-occur with schizophrenia is important in improving the life of individuals with schizophrenia. For example, people with schizophrenia are at increased risk of depression, or thoughts of suicide. 1996-2014 MedicineNet. What are some treatments for schizophrenia? There are a number  of helpful treatments available; medication remains the key of treatment for people with schizophrenia. These medications are often referred to as antipsychotics since they help decrease the intensity of psychotic symptoms. Many health-care professionals prescribe one of these medications, sometimes in combination of one or more other psychiatric medications, in order to maximize the benefit for the person with schizophrenia. Medications that are thought to be particularly effective in treating positive symptoms of schizophrenia include olanzapine (Zyprexa), risperidone (Risperdal), quetiapine (Seroquel), ziprasidone (Geodon), aripiprazole (Abilify), paliperidone (Invega), asenapine (Saphis), lurasidone (Latuda), and lloperidone (Fanapt). These medications are the newer collection of antipsychotic medications, also called second-generation antipsychotics. They are known for having the ability to work quickly compared too many other psychiatric medications. As a group of medications, side effects that occur most often include sleepiness, dizziness, and increased appetite. In addition to medication there are psychosocial treatments. One, Family psycho-education: In addition to educating family members about the symptoms, course, and treatment of schizophrenia, this form of treatment consists of providing family support, problem-solving skills, and access to care providers during times of crises. Secondly, there is the treatment of Social skills training: Also called illness management and recovery programming, social-skills training involve teaching clients ways to handle social situations appropriately. It often involves the person scripting (thinking through or role-playing) situations that occur in social settings in order to prepare for those situations when they actually occur. This treatment type has been found to help people with schizophrenia resist using drugs of abuse, as well as improve their relationships with health-care professionals and with people at work. Although, these are only a couple of the many options for treatment; these are some of the best. 1996-2014 MedicineNet. References: http://www.medicinenet.com/schizophrenia_pictures_slideshow/article.htmhttp://schizophrenia.com/family/sz.overview.htm http://www.medicinenet.com/schizophrenia/article.htm http://www.helpguide.org/mental/schizophrenia_symptom.htm Title Schizophrenia Authors John M. Neale, Thomas F. Oltmanns Edition illustrated Publisher John Wiley Sons, 1980 Original from the University of California Digitized Aug 24, 2010 ISBN 0471630861, 9780471630869 Length 554 pages http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schizophrenia

Company and market analysis for Uncle Tobys Company

Company and market analysis for Uncle Tobys Company The Uncle Tobys Company has a long and vibrant history, having gone through several name, location and ownership changes to get it to where it is today. The Uncle Tobys Muesli Bars is the ready to eat product suitable for people of all ages, their philosophy was that improved diet leads to improved health by balance and nutrition. The Uncle Tobys company was originally established as Parsons Bros, in Melbourne by Leonard and George Parsons when they arrived in Australia from England in 1861 and commenced manufacturing John Bull Oats. In 1893, The Uncle Tobys Oats product was introduced to the market by Clifford Love and Co in Sydney and entered the homes hearts and of Australian families, its the first shown as Uncle Tobys products in trade market. In the past hundred years, Uncle Tobys renamed a lot of times until 1989, the company was officially renamed as Uncle Tobys Company, and the stage was set for the birth of the brand we know and love today, Launch of Yoghurt Topps Muesli Ba rs. Uncle Tobys was one of sections of the Goodman Fielder food company, yet was separated by parent company Burns Philp in December 2005. In 2006, Swiss food giant Nestle purchased Uncle Tobys manufacturing facility and brands. SWOT Matrix 6 Marks Product: __Uncle Toby Muesli bars______ Strengths Products have required accreditations Right products, reliability and quality Better product life and durability Good customer loyalty differentiated products Creativity and imagination of staff Weaknesses Customer lists not tested Organisational infrastructure No direct marketing experience Dont have a detailed plan yet Lack of marketing expertise Limited budget Opportunities Local competitors have poor products Could extend to abroad Can surprise competitors Could expand the scale of supplier deals Threats Legislation could impact Taxation is introduced on product Fierce price competition Possible negative publicity Competition from other providers The 4Ps Analysis ¼Ã‚ Product, Price, Place and Promotion Products Several kinds of finest cereal bars as health product for balancing nutrition products. An instant breakfast catering all segments who want health and quick breakfast without preparation. A tasty snack for children and also it could be supplement for older adult to consume. Uncle Tobys Muesli Bars is the wholegrain product. Wholegrain content is important in peoples daily diet; its naturally nutrient can help maintain your familys wellbeing. The products contain wholegrain oats and wheat. These are intact grains, which mean they are slowly digested and contribute to products low glycemic index (GI)*. Uncle Tobys Muesli Bars contain on average 7% of the daily intake for sugar per bar. This means you can enjoy the goodness of wholegrain in a tasty snack as part of a balanced diet. And here are no artificial colours and flavours in the product and they are all source of fibre products. Many of the products in Uncle Tobys range are high in fibre, with an average serving delivering at least 3g of fibre towards your daily requirement of 30g. Some fibres, such as the whole grain wheat can also act as a prebiotic, nourishing your friendly bacteria and helping with digestive balance. The Uncle Tobys Muesli Bars got 3 different types of packages; they are Standard Packs (6 bars/120g), Value Packs (12bars/240g), Value Packs (18bars/360g, WOOLWORTH only). And it also got nut crumble, apricot, choc chips these 3 flavours on CRUNCHY, choc chip, forest fruits, apricot and white choc chip these 4 flavours on CHEWY, strawberry, raspberry, apricot, mango passionfruit and honeycomb these 5 flavours on YOGHURT TOPPS. These means Uncle Tobys Muesli Bars provide different products with different flavours to satisfy the different needs of customers. The variety of products makes the company different from other competitors. The business concentrates on changing the products since new variants or ingredient created that enhance ultimate multisensory food experience for making lots of kind product to satisfy different target markets and maintain original target market loyalty. Price Table 1 Brand Price (per 100g) Carmans AU $ 2.28 Uncle Tobys AU $ 2.16 Nature Valley AU $ 2.14 Cadbury AU $ 2.09 Be Nature AU $ 2.08 Coles AU $ 1.56 Table 1 demonstrates the price of different muesli bars products brand that can be found in COLES. The highest price of brand of muesli bars is Carmans which values AU $2.28 per 100g. The product of Uncle Tobys ranks second high price in COLES (AU $2.16 per 100g) that indicates its price strategy associates with non-price competition. By contrast, the brand of Coles which is the lowest price (AU $1.56 per 100g) stands for price competition. As can be seen from table 1, Uncle Tobys adopts non-price competition strategies. It emphasizes characteristic product features, quality, service, packaging, promotion or other factors to differentiate its product from competing brands rather than focusing on price. Although Uncle Tobys takes non-price competition strategy, the annual sales generates more than US $600 million in terms of retail sales that is not corresponsively in undesirable results (General Mills 2006). In 2001, Uncle Tobys has a yearly turnover of about US $900 million (ITP.net 2005). A little bit higher prices than competitors due to higher product quality, unusual product features and brand reputation but usually get price discount for products. (High price-High quality policy) Place/Distribution The types of marketing channels for Uncle Tobys product is a long-standing channel that producer conveys goods to a wholesalers, then to a retailer, and a retailer sell the product to the consumers. It is the most economical distribution channel for Uncle Tobys to be a long-standing channel as costs is lower than Uncle Tobys performs marketing their products. The product of Uncle Tobys, locates to intensive distribution allots products to customers by a range variable of outlets such as supermarkets and convenience stores. Efficient distribution of Uncle Tobys product is that produces products to Coles, WOLWORTH, 7-11 and other similar supermarkets and outlets. Customers purchase over three-quarters of all groceries in supermarkets. In terms of convenience stores, it extends opening hours and locates in a convenient place that people can purchase product frequently. Beside people can order products form Uncle Tobys Muesli Bars through internet which leads to cost reduction for consumer and supplier and make more convenient to purchase or even buy product directly from manufacture. Promotion Uncle Tobys were working together with the Royal Life Saving Society-Australia with the goal of preventing the drowning deaths of more than 50 children each year. Uncle Tobys invest half million dollars over three years to help teach Australian children how to swim and survive in the water in partnership with Royal Life Saving. As one of Australias top sports sponsors, Uncle Tobys has a solid history of Olympic team sponsorship. From 1988 to 2008 the company was official sponsor of the Australia Olympic Team. Below-the-line promotion: indirect expenditure on promotion refers to those methods of promoting products that do not use direct advertising such as free gift or getting stars to endorse products or news and magazine storles featuring the product. Uncle Tobys also doing the promotion in the supermarket like WOOLWORTH, Coles. They offer the fair price at anytime. Uncle Tobys brand which has developed a reputation for successful above-the-line advertising (TV, radio, poster), that makes Uncle Tobys became the 29th sales in Australia. Physical Evidence The Uncle Tobys name is synonymous with high-quality, great-tasting food the world over, so the promotion for their product always focus on delicious, tasty and high-price get high-quality. More recent years Uncle Tobys was one of the first in food industry to print Guideline Daily Amounts(GDAs) on the packs of product for showing the percentage of the recommended intake of calories, sugar, fat, saturates and salt for each portion of product clearly as Uncle Tobys is being a nutritionist. Hence the products from Uncle Tobys pay more attention on balance nutrition and health eating. Process The manufacturing system includes 3 parts in process: processing, packaging and storing. Packaging and storing- The cereal will be send to packaging area once they passed the quality check and place it into individual box and cases, then transport by conveyer belt to warehouse until they shipped to stores for retail sale. Conclusion The product variable in marketing mix emphasis health and quick cereal breakfast or snack without preparation which fit all ages, it means wide range of target market such as health claim are more popular for everyone, female are shape conscious and convenient food are common now, more price variable pays more attention on the target market who willing to pay a little bit more for higher quality product than competitors but sometime the customer will get reward for loyalty or price discount ( see promotion ).Also this business done well job at boost sales and brand value by using varied promotion methods since this business established, they try to make products available on hand everywhere as well. The buyer for Uncle Tobys Muesli Bar will be parents or older adult and cereal are purchase one of the fastest-moving product in supermarket, also research shows the most influencer are kids. Despite they pay more attention on target market for 8-11 years child, but Uncle Tobys Muesli Bar hard to make product diversify for growing different target markets for increasing profit, they wish their products not only for everybody but also can be consumed in any time, Uncle Tobys Muesli Bar contains comprehensive target markets for example health and instant breakfast for everyone, sweet snack for chide and adult, also supplement for older adult which Uncle Tobys Muesli Bar can be consumed all day in different ways. Successful business use all the tools at their disposal to stay at the top of their chosen market and Uncle Tobys Muesli Bar are able to use a number of business tools properly in order to successful in ready-to-eat cereal market by re-position the brand through the use of marketing mix, return the brand to grow, improve the frequent of purchase and introduce new customers to brand. This business is sound marketer to carefully segment and deliver an outstanding proposition for their customers. The vision and idea from founder Uncle Tobys which strong commitment to nutrition, health and quality driven improvement for their products and process to make Uncle Tobys business being a leader of cereal and snack producer in the world.

Living Together before Marriage Essay -- Argumentative Persuasive Coha

Living Together Before Marriage There are many advantages and disadvantages in living together before marriage. Today there are many couples living together before marriage. Sometimes these kinds of relationships 'living together before marriage' end up with success and sometimes they are unsuccessful. Some of the advantages of living together before marriage are such as getting to know your partner, learning about one's abilities if he/she can satisfy your expectations and more. Also, there are some disadvantages in living together before marriage and they are such as religious and family values, parenting problems and more. I think there are more advantages then disadvantages in living together before marriage, because sometimes disadvantages in this kind of relationship are avoidable. One of the advantages of living together before marriage is getting to know a person that you might marry with. It is important for a person to know almost everything about the other person that he/she is going to get marry with. However, it can?t be accomplish without living together for a while before getting married. People need to know how a person is handling his/her life from all aspects such as behavior, mental, financial and others before a person decides to get married with. This can not be completed in a few days, therefore, it is important to live together for a while before deciding weather to get married or now. Also, learning about a person?s abilities to satisfy yo...

The Strange Utopia of The Giver :: Giver Essays

The Strange Utopia of The Giver Imagine living in a world where you can't choose your job, where at the age of twelve you are assigned an occupation by some group of elders. Imagine a world in which you can't choose that special person to be your wife or husband, a world where nobody is special. Visualize a place where you can't have your own children, where you have to take care of somebody else's children. In The Giver by Louis Lowry, this place exists every day. It's a perfect world, a utopia. A job is, for many people, one of the most important parts of their life. If it's so important, you have to enjoy it, and to enjoy it, you have to choose it yourself. In this "utopia," created in The Giver you don't get to do that. Other people choose the activity you are going to do for the rest of your life. For example, Fiona was assigned Caretaker of The Old, a job she really wanted, but don't you think that maybe later in her life, she could change her mind and not want to do her job anymore? She can't do that because she lives in a world where she doesn't have a choice, where she can't run her own life. "You have the power to think what you want. No matter what the circumstance is." No one can tell you what to think, you have a mind of your own, and repressing your thoughts won't do any good at all. I want to give you a quote from the book. " I heard about a guy who was absolutely sure he was going to be an engineer and instead he was assigned sanitation laborer. He jumped into the river and swam to the closest community, no one saw him again." This demonstrates that the elders can be wrong. People defending Sameness can say that all the jobs are made for the people getting them and that they will like them and be an active part of the community. I am going to respond to that with a life story. Before I was twelve, all I wanted to do is be an architect.

The Pardons of Purgatory Essay -- Literary Analysis, Dante

Freedom is the ability one has to choose. Freedom is without consequence, fear of transgression, and lacks regret. Freedom is a fork in the road—a trail that leads to fortune in a field of traps. Humans have freedom and hold it as children do crayons, straying beyond the lines of purpose only to get lost in meaningless scribbles. Dante condemns these actions in his poem Purgatory. Dante invents a fictitious location in afterlife, liberating souls that have become prisoners of their own disarray. With a collection of paradoxes, vivid imagery, and active examples, Dante establishes a thorough process in which souls can be cleansed of the past and stride to their future. Purgatory is far from a place of punishment; it is rather a place of liberation; individuals can only obtain ultimate freedom if cleansed of their sins. Deceived perspective and impaired logic lure vulnerable individuals to frolic in the meadows of sin; therefore, in order to achieve ultimate freedom, one must first be stripped clean of all earthly and common expectations. Dante contorts Earth from a palace to a prison. Bound in earthly limitations, man â€Å"by his own fault† (Dante 307) engenders â€Å"grief and toil† (Dante 307) causing the â€Å"the winds of earth and sea to rise† (Dante 307). Men adhere to addictive habits ignorant of God’s presence on earth. By contrast, purgatory cuts men’s binds to these traps through punishment, enlightening individuals to their mistake. These conversions prompt â€Å"singing† (Dante 109) not moaning—as one would expect during punishment—and as the cleansed souls free themselves of their burdens of sin, their climb â€Å"up the sacred stairs†(Dante 133) seems â€Å"lighter†(Dante 133) and â€Å"easier by far† (Da nte 133). Dante uses these paradoxe... ...ppy† (Dante 329) when yielding himself to power of divine grace. Unless individuals willing concede and move forward to convert themselves to the purpose of a higher plan, they will wander aimlessly alone with no guidance or hope of liberation. Habits are broken in a series of steps. If followed, one will undoubtedly achieve a freedom, allowing him to pursue the courses of his desires. The process to ultimate freedom does not revoke a man’s appetite, but rather corrects it. The consequence of sin is not happiness. Sin leads only to regret and misery. True desires are those that bring fulfillment, success, and bliss. The plan of divine grace only leads individuals to a life free of unnecessary pain. When men become lords of them self by taming wild desires and consciously consenting to the plan of divine grace, he will live the life of ultimate freedom.

Myer Holdings Limited (Myer)

Prospective analysis – forecast The previous reports have already approached the industry and financial analysis of Myer. This report will analyze the forecast, valuation and application of Myer, including forecasting the major data, valuating share price under four model and discussing the opportunity and challenge of Myer. 1. Forecast sales growth rate As one of the most important indicators, sales can reflect directly Myer’s financial performance and influence other indicators. Therefore, the forecast of sales growth rate is the foundation for forecasting Myer.Based on the previous annual reports from 2007 to 2011, Myer’s sales are not optimistic and the average growth rate is negative 2. 89%. The decline of both global economy and purchase power of consumers in Australia will lead to the depression of whole industry and unsatisfied performance of Myer in 2012. Additionally, growth of 20% online shopping shows that more and more consumers prefer to purchase on line instead of in the shops . Therefore, negative 1% of sales growth rate for Myer can be assumed in 2012. However, Australia would have a weakening global economy impact and have strong national growth in the future .According to IMF, Australian economy growth rate is expected up to 3. 5% in 2013 . Considering the previous performance of Myer, 2% of growth rate can be assumed for 2013. After that, 3% of growth rate can be assumed from 2014 to 2017 and the sales would approximately even to 2007. (See below chart) Previous years ‘00020072008200920102011Average rate Sales3,002,3532,940,3312,798,9162,825,0342,666,803? sales growth? -2. 07%-4. 81%0. 93%-5. 60%-2. 89% Future years ?2011201220132014201520162017 Sales growth? -1%2%3%3%3%3% 2. Forecast ATO & calculate NOAAccording to the past five years’ data, Myer’s Assets Turnover ratio (ATO) declined slowly following the decrease of sales, apart from 2011 down quickly. Therefore, the average rate 2. 05 can be used to predict the future years. (See below chart) ? 20072008200920102011Average rate ATO2. 02 2. 282. 152. 001. 772. 05 3. Forecast PM & calculate NOPAT Profit Margin (PM) is another important indicator in forecasting Myer’s performance. This indicator relates between the sales and cost of goods sold and operating costs. The competition in retail industry is stronger than before.That means through increasing sales or decrease COS to increase PM is more difficult. The change of PM fluctuated markedly in the last five years. In order to fairly predict the data, the average of 7. 5% can be used as the future PM growth rate. (See below chart) ? 20072008200920102011Average rate profit margin4. 7%13. 4%4. 9%7. 8%6. 6%7. 5% 4. Forecast net dividend payout Dividend payout is a significant indicator to influence share price. Therefore, estimating this rate means the people can determine Myer whether focuses on benefiting shareholders and beautifies share price or not.According to the past 5 years, only 3 years Myer paid dividends. After calculation, the average rate based on 3 years is 45% and 5 years is 27%. However, 27% is too low for shareholders if Myer earn more profit base on the forecast. In addition, most of dividends payout is higher than 50%. Therefore, the forecasting dividend payout rate is estimated by 45%. (See below chart) ? 20072008200920102011Average rate(3yrs)Average rate(5yrs) Dividend0%50%0%28%59%45%27% 5. Forecast cost of debt and debt balance Basically, cost of debt means the expense of liabilities.Determining the cost of debt is as well as setting up the financial structure such as how much debt Myer plan to borrow. According to the previous data, Myer repaid a huge amount of debt in 2010 and led to the cost up and net debt down. However, the debt did not rise up again and kept the similar level as 2010. Therefore, concerning about the cost of debt, the average of 10. 75% seems more reasonable to predict the future. (See below chart) ? 20072008 200920102011Average rate % cost of debt6. 25%6. 41%6. 36%30. 31%4. 41%10. 75% net debt (ND)928,503 856,242 904,258 414,574 457,362 ?Prospective – Valuation Four methods are used to valuate Myer, DDM, DAE, DAOE and DCF. In addition, two ways are used to determine cost of capital, which are CAPM and WACC. In CAPM model, risk-free rate, risk premium rate and ? are assumed separately 4. 5%, 6. 5% and 1. 1. It is not easy to determine ? because it changes every day. Assuming 1. 1 for? means the fluctuation of Myer share price is a little stronger than the market but not too much . Therefore, cost of capital (Re) is calculated by the formula and equals to 11. 65%. This Re is used in DDM and DAE. In WACC model, because Re is 11. 5%, Rf is calculated by formula and equals to 11. 43%. This Rf is used in DAOE and DCF. The share price is calculated by these 4 different models. (See below chart) ModelForecast Share price in 2012 DDM1. 7423 DAE2. 4548 DAOE2. 5603 DCF2. 5603 DDM is influen ced strongly by dividends because this model uses dividends to calculate value of shares. If the company does not pay dividends, the share price would be lower. Myer is estimated to pay dividends in 45% and the share price closes to market share price. (See below chart) DateLast % Change High Low Vol * 24 Oct 20121. 950-1. 27% 1. 621. 9306,259,477 This model is easy to understand Myer’s business conditions. However, this is affected by dividends too much and dividends are not always linking the value creation , the valuation model seems very limited. Obviously, this cannot reflect the Myer’s real value and conditions. Additionally, compared to DDM, DAE involves in other indicator abnormal earnings to value Myer share price and is better to present Myer’s conditions. Myer share price in DAE is higher than DDM because it reflects book value of equity and PV of future abnormal earnings to add share value.Therefore, this is more close to the real performance of Myer . Also, DAOE model is similar with DAE apart from that DAOE focuses on the equity which is determined by operating abnormal earnings. This eliminates the influence of Myer’s financial activities to calculate abnormal earnings. However, Myer’s financial value has been added to the equity finally. Therefore, this can reflect Myer’s condition in operating. Finally, DCF model focuses on cash flow which results in the equity increases. Usually, it can get the same share price with DAOE, but does not affected by accounting rules.However, investments are treated as losses for cash flow, which can bring more future benefits to Myer. Therefore, if Myer plans to use investments to produce free cash flow, then this model is very close Myer’s real conditions. Prospective – Sensitivity On one side, Myer is department store and compete in retail industry. Seasonality is more significant aspect in retail industry. The boom seasons for Myer are the end of financia l year and Christmas holidays. Also, the weather, new products in season or other factors are the aspects which Myer is sensitive.On the other side, according to Appendix 4, the four models of sensitivity can be analyzed. For the indicators of sales, ATO, dividend payout, DDM is the most sensitive, while DCF and DAOE are not sensitive. However, DDM is not sensitive in debt, while DCF and DAOE are most sensitive. Application Opportunities According to the forecast analysis and valuation, Myer has some possible opportunities to improve herself and get rid of the difficult conditions although the depression of condition expands the whole retail industry. Myer is predicted to pay more dividends to their shareholders in forecast analysis.This will addict more investor to buy shares and this can push the share price to rise up. Also, the book value of equity for Myer can be increased and this leads to no one can buy Myer’s share lower than book value. Therefore, a higher merger val ue or acquisition value can be created. Eventually, Myer will get more capital to investment. Therefore, Myer has an opportunity to invest this implemental capital. Concerning about the future economy, Australia will have strong domestic economy increase . As a result, Australian consumption and requirement will be up.Therefore, keeping and maintaining domestic consumers are still the main tasks for Myer. With the online shopping eroded the traditional shopping stores, Myer should improve their online shopping services, such as beautifying and making it convenient for customers. Myer’s CEO announced they would launch a new â€Å"omni-channel† service to stimulate consumers shop online . Obviously, Myer has already recognized online shopping is the main method to regain market share. Additionally, expanding the overseas market seems a good lamb for Myer to increase profit.Recently, Australia government has signed two Free Trade Agreement negotiations with China and Japa n separately. This provides a firm foundation to encourage more foreign investments between Australia and both of countries . Therefore, Myer can be provided more supports to invest in China and Japan. There are three reasons for Myer to choose China rather than Japan to set up the first overseas branch. Firstly, 1. 34 billion of China population is more stable for consumption foundation than 127million of Japan . Secondly, the advantage of exchange can provide more benefits for Myer to invest in overseas.Thirdly, more products of Myer are produced by China; therefore, setting up branch in china can save the delivery cost and tax. Challenges Although Myer’s forecasting is more profitable, it still has a potential challenge for borrowings. First of all, the purpose of loan for Myer may be to expand its shops or update its online shopping. These have more chances to be long-term debts instead of short-term debts. However, when they are in the lack of cash flows, Myer may pay di vidends through borrowings. Although this can be short-term debts, it is not for earning profit.Therefore, both of these are risky for debtors. Secondly, the figure shows that Myer would not plan to increase its financial expenses. That may be Myer prefer to get more funds from shareholders and her own operates rather than debts. This looks lower risky than people’s anticipation while it also means Myer would slow the repayment of debt and the previous debt risky will be raised up. Thirdly, the steady growth rate of dividend payout shows Myer would pay more dividends to benefit their shareholders when they earn more money instead of pay the debt or reinvest.In other words, Myer prefer has more long-term debt than short-term debt and maybe the benefits will be impaired. Therefore, the debt’s risk of Myer tends to be increased by Myer’s trend. Fourthly, the debt leverage looks healthy. However, the decrease of debt leverage is because not only the debt decreases, but also the net operating assets increase. Above all, Myer probably has problem when debt from debtors. Therefore, a detailed loan structure should be planned to make debtor have more confidence and willing to borrow money to Myer.This loan structure need to concern about the percentage of debt and equity for Myer. Also, the percentage of long-term debt and short-term debt should be considered. In addition, the purposes of debt need to be clear, easy to understand and report to debtors and shareholders. Conclusion To sum up, these analyses are really useful to approach Myer’s conditions and performance, and also can give some particular information through valuation. However, there are not perfect analyses; people still need to look for more effective analyses to value the firm.

Indian dance Essay

Kathak is the one of eight forms of Indian classical dances perform by men and women, originated from northern indian, known as kathakars or storytellers. The styles of dance have its unique character from the rhythmic footwork with rhythms that he or she stomps out barefoot on the floor, accented with many bells worn around the ankles ( and from seeing the guest artist I can say there were more than 100 bells around her ankles making lots of noise to go with the beats of the drum), spectacular spins, and also every dance piece has a story behind it. A traditional kathak performance features a solo dancer on a stage, surrounded on all sides by the audience. The repertoire includes amad ,the dramatic entrance of the dancer on stage. Male dancers perform in Persian costume of wide skirts and round caps, while female dancers wear a traditional Indian garment called a sari. Back in the day women are the one who preserved this traditional dance more than the men. Kathak are typically performs by one dancer surrounded by a group of musicians. The solo dancer performs the parts of all the characters in the story. For example the guest artist were going back and forth rapidly from one of her dance piece between two characters. She did it without changing her positions on stage, changes in gestures and facial expressions signal instantly which character they take on at that moment. Before the guest artist started her dance so did a pronom giving thanks to all five elements or also known as the god, space, wind, fire, water and earth. Dance is on the earth, the eyes wherever the eyes are the mind, where the mind there are feelings. The way Antara gave thank to the god were a little different from what we normally did in class, with more steps and she also added some singing and harmony into the rituals. Based on what Antara told us, kathak is a very intimate dance where it is a three ways conversation, between dancers with musicians and dancers with the audience. The tempo for kathak consist of 16 beats. Dancers sometime precise the beats while dancing. With kathak you can play with the rhythms, there is no set rhythms. Kathak consisted of a lot of feet movement and with that the bells around Antara added a more prominent movements. Even though the focused on her foot because of all the bells, we can still see that she’s using her upper body. The arms movement were very smooth and elegant, her eyes moved according to her hands gestures. Antara played the Theka which looked and sound like the accordion, along with singing and dancing. The Theka did not stop Antara from doing her incredible spins and keeping the tempo while doing all these things at once. Stomping her foot very fast and loud on the floor seems to be away for her to keep her tempo. Even when she was stomping her foot her hands and head was still doing a lot of movement to help tell the story. During her performance she uses a lot of phrases in Indian and it was hard for me to understand or catch what she was saying. But she later on explained that it is just like how we counts beats in america instead of using numbers, in Indian dance they used the language of the drums. Her right foot always ended in the front to help her keep up with the beat and also so that her body can face the audience and interacted with them. Her dance move was not all fast but it was very precise and very professional. Antara dances very elegant and somehow I can see her personality throw the way she moved the way she carry herself on all the dance pieces. She is a great dancer and a great guest artist for the style, she makes me want to learn more about the style and actually go see her performance in San Francisco.